Oscar Predictions


It’s that time of year! As an avid movie lover I relish awards season. I love the movie stars, the dresses, and most of all, the Oscars. I know a lot of people find them boring but I think they’re fantastic. I love the speeches. To me it’s a great insight into some of my favorite stars. Which ones just read off names and put people to sleep? Which ones just cry? And which select few, use the speech as a chance to be funny and interesting? I’m looking at you Clooney. Great speech in 2006.

So as someone who loves the Oscars so much I naturally like to come up with my list of predictions. Let me take a moment to pat myself on the back and say that at Oscar parties I’ve been to for the last three years, I’ve won the Oscar pool every time. Granted, I’m usually the only one there who pays a shit ton of attention to awards season, but it still makes me feel special. So fuck off with your judgement. I made sure to see all of the main nominated films this year and it’s definitely been a good year.

And now onto the predictions! I’ll just do the top 6 since that’s all most people care about anyway. Kidding. I care. I care a lot Mr. Sound Editor.

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

This is one of the “anyone’s game” categories this year. I feel like the top contenders are Helena Bonham Carter and Melissa Leo. I think the Oscars will highly favor The King’s Speech tonight and that may trickle down to Bonham Carter. However, almost everyone I’ve talked to about The Fighter has come away talking about Bale and Leo (and the sisters of course). Her performance stands out just enough that I think she’ll edge out Bonham Carter to take the Oscar home.

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale – The Fighter
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Hollywood sure has been sucking Renner’s dick ever since The Hurt Locker. Maybe they feel bad about not giving him the statue last year, but not enough to give it to him this year. Rush was amazing in The King’s Speech. He made the movie. I thought it was going to be drab and boring but the relationship between him and Firth was perfect. The Oscar is going to go to Bale though. There are few actor’s who throw themselves into a role as much as he does. I think he chooses “transformation” roles to keep his street cred while still doing the Batman movies. I think it will pay off this year and he’ll ride in his limo home a winner.

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman – The Black Swan
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone

I really wish they could give it out to two people this year. Both Portman and Williams deserve it. Blue Valentine left me emotionally fucked up for a couple of days. Williams was so hauntingly real and wonderful. This award is all Portman’s however. There’s no doubt she’ll win. Black Swan would not have been the same movie without her desperate, fragile, tortured ballerina. She was phenomenal.

Best Actor:
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Javier Bardem – Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
James Franco – 127 Hours

I really wish Jeff Bridges would win for this one (and why wasn’t Damon nominated for supporting? He was fantastic also). He has a already won an Oscar though and Firth has not. He also deserved one for last years A Single Man. Sometimes the Academy likes to give awards not for the individual performance, but as more of a, “Well you’ve done a lot of great work and we think you should have a statue.” Firth is a consistently great actor and deserves to have one of these on his shelf.

Best Director:
David O. Russell – The Fighter
Joel and Ethan Coen – True Grit
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech

I find it endlessly amusing that years ago Aronofsky was attached to direct The Fighter with Brad Pitt at the helm. He dropped it and picked up Black Swan and now he’s up against his previous project. Funny. Anyway, neither of them are going to win. All of these films are great with equally talented directors. I think this year belongs to The King’s Speech so I’m giving it to Hooper. And since traditionally (though not always) Best Picture and Best Director go hand-in-hand…

Best Picture:
Toy Story 3
The Social Network
127 Hours
Winter’s Bone
The King’s Speech
True Grit
The Fighter
Black Swan
The Kids Are All Right

I’m not a fan of the extended 10 film nomination. Everyone knows they did it just to let a few more “commercial” films in there to attract a wider audience. The Oscars favor indie films and always will. That being said, damn I wish Inception would win. Best Picture in my heart. This year it was really hard to decide. I think it’s between The Social Network and The King’s Speech. I feel like The Social Network has more of an “epic” feel to it that the Oscars love but I think it’s just commercial enough though that they would rather give it to the slightly smaller film, The King’s Speech. I’m not 100% confident of this position, but it’s what I’m going to stick with.

So! What do you think? Did I get any wrong? Which films do you favor to win? Leave me a comment and let me know!

Early in the week I’ll be back with a fashion review of the dresses on the red carpet.

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